In any presidential election year, the nation’s focus is placed on the race at the top of the ticket. However, across the country, races for the Senate, House of Representatives, and various governorships have a massive impact on the next four years of American government, both at the state and national levels.
The most notable of these smaller races are ones in the Senate. Democrats will be playing defense in a host of competitive elections as they try to defend their narrow 51-seat majority, while Republicans will try to defeat Democratic senators in states that have shifted to the right—a move that has defined Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s tenure as leader of his party’s delegation in the upper chamber.
The fact that Democrats are defending seats in swing states won in the 2018 “blue wave” might not have as great of an effect as one might expect. Evan Varones ‘25, leader of the Current Events Club, said, “I don’t think [that it’s left them more vulnerable]… most of the newly elected Democrats are pretty well supported, enough to keep their seats.” Even in key states that are competitive in the presidential contest—Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—Democrats look poised to hold on.
The biggest chances for Republicans to flip the Senate fall in three red states with Democratic senators: West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. West Virginia is a near-lock to flip after the retirement of Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin, but the other two races remain in the balance. Montana’s Joe Tester currently trails behind challenger Tim Sheehy; In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown holds a narrow polling lead on Republican Bernie Moreno. Even if the numbers in Ohio hold, Republicans seem poised to regain control of the Senate for the first time since 2018.
Given these uphill battles in seats they currently hold, Senate Democrats have begun to push for victory in three other states: Texas, Florida, and surprisingly, Nebraska (where Democrats refused to run a candidate against independent Dan Osborn). Despite this, Republican wins in each of these three races remains the most likely outcome. As Varones put it, “For now, I think they’re going to stay with two red senators [per state], but in the future, the states could [elect a Democrat].”
When it comes to the lower chamber of the United States legislature, things are as close as they can get. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, but the outcome remains entirely up in the air. Most forecasters agree that Democrats hold a slight advantage—around a 55-60% chance of taking control—but the outcome will likely follow the results of the presidential election.
Lastly, among a host of statewide gubernatorial elections on the ballot this year, the scandal-ridden race in North Carolina has drawn the most attention. After being under fire for extreme and antisemitic comments for the duration of the campaign season, Republican Mark Robinson received what was likely the finishing blow to his chances after CNN dropped a bombshell investigative report that detailed several inappropriate and racist claims he made on an adult forum, among them a declaration that he was a “black Nazi.” Most polls have his Democratic opponent, Josh Stein, leading by numbers well into the double digits.
The race for the presidency is and always will be the one that will receive the bulk of the nation’s attention. But as America continues its tireless march to election day, it’s important to remember to keep track of—and vote in—the countless other races that have just as much of an impact on our lives and the future of the country.
