The leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, was killed on October 16, 2024, by Israeli forces. Hamas is a group founded in 1987 that has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007. This leaves the position vacant, and Khaled Mashal will fill in until a replacement is elected. Israel and Hamas have been in an ongoing armed conflict since October 7, when Hamas attacked people in Israel in response to what they saw as unfair treatment of Palestinians in Gaza.
Sinwar has been the leader of Hamas since 2017. In 1985, prior to Hamas, Sinwar helped create Al-Majd, an organization dedicated to exposing Palestinian informants who Israel recruited. During Hamas’s creation, this organization combined with it. In 1988, Sinwar was arrested for killing 12 Palestinians suspected to be working with Israel and spent approximately two decades in Israeli prison. Sinwar was one of the founders of Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, giving Hamas a more militant approach.
Gregory Harms is an independent scholar specializing in US foreign policy and the Middle East and has published numerous books analyzing instability in the Middle East. Harms said, “I don’t think it’s going to have much of an effect at all. Leaders of Hamas have been killed before; this is not a new occurrence. Hamas will just find new people to put in these positions. This will hurt them in the short term but not the long term.” Contrastingly, Harms believes, “Israel is signing itself up for severe security problems, and that’s consistent with what Israeli intelligence has been saying for a very long time.”
Many political leaders have responded to this new development. President Joe Biden said, “There is now the opportunity for a ‘day after’ in Gaza without Hamas in power and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike.” Similarly, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, “This is a clear message to all of our enemies — the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] will reach anyone who attempts to harm the citizens of Israel or our security forces, and we will bring you to justice.” Israel marks this death as an accomplishment of the IDF, bringing the war one step closer to finishing. Supporters of Hamas spoke out condemning this assassination, such as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who said, “The cause for liberation of Palestine from occupation is more alive than ever.”
The leadership void within Hamas may result in either intensified actions from Gaza or possible opportunities for peace negotiations, depending on who succeeds Sinwar. The public’s opinion on Sinwar’s death parallels its opinion on the overall Israel-Hamas conflict–split. Unfortunately, Sinwar’s death is just one of thousands in this bloody war. The world is paying close attention to how this might impact efforts for peace in the Middle East. Sinwar’s death could either push for more diplomatic talks or lead to more violence, showing how fragile Israeli-Palestinian relations are.
